• Version
• Télécharger 36
• Taille du fichier 6 Mo
• Date de création 08/02/2025
• Télécharger

In January 2025, the global economy maintained moderate momentum. Inflation eased slightly again. However, it remains high due to significant wage pressures and the continued adjustment, with a lag, of the price of some services to the past inflationary surge. That said, the evolution of underlying inflation is broadly consistent with a sustained return of inflation towards targets. The slowdown in international trade, exacerbated by the intensification of trade frictions between the main economic powers, is expected to continue to weigh on global growth. In addition, a more marked materialization of the lagged effects of restrictive monetary policies could accentuate this deceleration. However, a gradual recovery of the global economy is expected, driven by the increase in real incomes which would stimulate household consumption. Over time, the gradual attenuation of the effects of restrictive monetary policy should support a recovery in demand. Finally, this increase in global demand should support the recovery of exports, thus helping to strengthen overall economic activity.

In the commodities market, copper rose, supported by a favorable economic outlook in the United States and stimulus measures in China. Conversely, cobalt continued to decline due to the technological transition in the battery industry, reducing demand for this metal. Gold rebounded after several months of stagnation, supported by more accommodative monetary policies from major central banks. Finally, oil saw notable gains, driven by harsh weather conditions that strengthened energy demand, despite persistent geopolitical tensions...