• Version
• Télécharger 38
• Taille du fichier 6 Mo
• Date de création 11/03/2025
• Télécharger

As of February 2025, the global economy has maintained a moderate growth path, characterized by gradual disinflation. Although inflation has continued to decline, it remains resilient due to persistent wage pressures and the process of delayed price readjustment of some services, still passing on the effects of the previous inflationary surge. Nevertheless, the evolution of underlying inflation remains broadly aligned with a sustainable convergence towards central bank objectives. The slowdown in international trade, amplified by the increase in trade tensions between major economic powers, continues to be a drag on global growth. In addition, the delayed effects of restrictive monetary policies could put additional pressure on economic activity, reinforcing the ongoing deceleration. However, a gradual recovery is anticipated, supported by an improvement in real incomes, which would stimulate household consumption and gradually strengthen domestic demand. In the medium term, the gradual dissipation of the restrictive effects of monetary tightening should support a cyclical reacceleration of aggregate demand. This dynamic, combined with a gradual recovery in international trade, would support export growth and thus contribute to a consolidation of global economic activity.

In the commodities market, copper prices continued their upward trend, driven by expectations of new tariffs in the United States, although overcapacity in China is maintaining pressure on supply. Cobalt, after a period of weakness, began to recover due to the interruption of exports from the DRC, the world’s main supplier, disrupting global supply. Gold continued its ascent, supported by trade tensions, the decline in the dollar and expectations of monetary easing in the United States, reinforcing its attractiveness as a safe haven. In contrast, oil prices declined, affected by uncertainties surrounding OPEC+ production decisions, the resumption of exports from Kurdistan and negotiations related to the war in Ukraine. In financial markets, performances generally showed contrasting dynamics across regions. In the United States, stock indices declined, impacted by heightened geopolitical tensions. This volatility led to losses on the NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Dow Jones. In Europe, markets continued their upward trend, supported by solid corporate results and more optimistic economic outlooks, favoring the progression of the DAX and CAC 40 indices. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 recorded a notable decline, affected by profit-taking after a period of strong growth.