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• Date de création 10/12/2024
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The global economy in November 2024 remained on a moderate path. Annual inflation eased in November. However, the gradual easing of pressures on labor costs, food and energy prices, and the gradual transmission of recent monetary policy tightening to consumer prices are expected to continue, with earnings partly cushioning their effects on inflation. Weaker international trade, including from an escalation of trade tensions among major economies, would dampen growth. It could also be weaker if the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening prove stronger than anticipated. However, the global economy is expected to strengthen over time as rising real incomes allow households to consume more. The gradual fading of the effects of tight monetary policy should support consumption and investment. Finally, exports should contribute to the recovery as global demand increases.

In the commodity market, we observed a continued decline in copper prices. In contrast, cobalt prices remained frozen in November, showing no significant change from their closing level at the end of September 2024. Furthermore, crude oil prices displayed mixed dynamics across major benchmark markets. In contrast, gold prices trended downward, mainly due to the appreciation of the US dollar against benchmark currencies, which put pressure on demand for this precious metal.

In the financial sector, US stock indices continued their upward trend, supported by the election of Donald Trump, as well as the prospects of monetary easing in December. On the other hand, European and Japanese markets posted mixed performances, influenced by economic and political uncertainties. At the national level, risks associated with the economic outlook remain largely asymmetric, largely due to unfavourable movements in the terms of trade and tensions exacerbated by the security and humanitarian crisis resulting from armed conflicts in the east of the country. Contemporary economic indicators point to a persistent sluggishness in activity in the short term, illustrating limited resilience to exogenous shocks.

As for the national economy, inflation has slowed down,11.91%, year-on-year, in the fourth week of November, compared to October 2024. The rebound in inflation was, however, less significant than expected. As regards the external sector, the Congolese franc experienced a slight appreciation innovember2024 compared to October 2024. On the interbank market, this rate would be 2,846.27 in the fourth week of the month while on the parallel market, the exchange rate would be 2,871.26 in the fourth week of November 2024. In addition, foreign exchange reserves increased slightly in November, amounting to USD 6,117.05 million. Reported in number of months of imports, the coverage of imports by foreign exchange reserves would still be 3.50 months of imports. On the political front in 2024, the month of November was marked in particular by the controversy surrounding the revision or change of the Constitution, the meetings on the general states of justice as well as by the continued deterioration of the security situation in the East of the country.