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• Date de création 10/06/2025
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In May 2025, the global economy continued its moderate expansion, and the disinflation process is well underway. Inflation remained in line with services expectations, and both headline and core inflation moderated in May. Services price inflation also moderated significantly. Most measures of core inflation point to sustained stabilization of inflation. Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partly offsetting the inflationary effects of their continued strong growth. The global economy has developed some resilience to global shocks, although the growth outlook has deteriorated due to escalating trade tensions. The economic outlook is clouded by exceptional uncertainties. Exporters face new trade barriers, although the extent remains uncertain. Disruptions to international trade, financial market tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on business investment. Consumers, increasingly cautious about the future, may limit their spending. These factors could also weigh on the global economic outlook. Conversely, a more rapid easing of financial conditions, combined with easing inflation, could catalyze a more robust recovery in domestic demand and private investment.

In the commodities market, performance varied across segments. In the precious metals market, the price of gold declined slightly, influenced by investor profit-taking, easing geopolitical tensions, and a weaker US dollar, although it retained its role as a safe haven asset in an uncertain climate. In industrial metals, copper prices rebounded, driven by strong demand linked to the energy transition and the rise of green technologies, while cobalt prices, despite structurally rising demand, stabilized after the surge following the export ban imposed by the DRC, the world’s largest producer. On the oil markets, American (WTI) and European (Brent) benchmarks have seen a slight recovery, but remain under pressure in the face of uncertainties linked to OPEC+ decisions, persistent trade disputes and fears of a supply surplus fueled by the ambitions of certain major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. In financial markets, international markets displayed generally positive momentum, driven by accommodative signals from central banks and an improving outlook for trade policies. In the United States, stock indices recorded their best performance of the year, supported by expectations of lower tariffs. In Europe, markets such as Paris and Frankfurt rebounded, boosted by the easing of transatlantic trade tensions and the industrial recovery. In Japan, market growth was fueled by strong results from large companies, reflecting renewed investor confidence in a more favorable macroeconomic environment.