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• Date de création 07/08/2025
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In June 2025, the global economy continued a phase of moderate expansion amid a context marked by progressive disinflation, supported by anchored inflation expectations and the normalization of wage dynamics. Recent data indicate a simultaneous slowdown in both headline and core inflation, particularly within the traditionally more rigid service components, confirming the consolidation of a more stable price regime. The deceleration of nominal wages, combined with resilient profit margins, has helped cushion the second-round effects on consumer prices. However, the cyclical momentum remains constrained by rising external risks: intensified trade tensions, increasing protectionist measures, and a resurgence of geopolitical uncertainties are eroding economic agents' confidence. These factors weigh on productive investment through an increased uncertainty channel and on consumption, amid growing household caution. This configuration raises the likelihood of a synchronized slowdown in activity unless a faster easing of financial conditions—combined with continued disinflation—reactivates the endogenous drivers of overall demand, particularly through a resurgence of private investment and a revitalization of the consumption cycle.

In July 2025, global economic activity maintained a trajectory of moderate expansion within a context of gradual disinflation. This reflects a progressive slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures. Recent data indicate a simultaneous slowdown in both headline and core inflation, particularly within the traditionally more rigid service components. This trend confirms the consolidation of a more stable price regime.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest a durable stabilization of price increases. Although wage growth remains strong, it continues to significantly moderate. Profits partially offset the effects on inflation. With an increase in real incomes and the strength of the labor market, households will be able to increase their spending. Combined with more favorable financing conditions, this development should make the global economy more resilient to shocks.

Despite these positive developments, the risks to economic growth remain skewed to the downside. An escalation of global trade tensions and the uncertainties arising from them could limit exports and hinder investment and consumption.